Aircraft leasing company Avolon said it expects Airbus or Boeing to launch a new civil aircraft program in 2027. In its “Up Next” report, which looks at industry trends for 2026 and beyond, the company bases this expectation on airlines’ strong financial outlook, low fuel prices, and the ongoing structural shortage in aircraft supply.
According to the report, the leading candidates are three “stretched” models: in the narrowbody segment the Airbus A220-500, in the widebody segment the Airbus A350-2000, and Boeing’s yet-to-be-certified 777X family’s stretched version, the 777-10X.
Avolon noted that Airbus and Boeing’s order backlogs now exceed 11 years, and that the supply gap in widebody aircraft will continue at least into the 2030s. In the narrowbody segment, the Boeing 737-10 is seen as lagging behind the A321neo in market positioning, while leasing companies with early production slots gain a strategic advantage.
While discussions about new programs continue, Avolon said the biggest winner in 2026 will be the Airbus A330neo. The A330neo is highlighted as effectively the only new widebody option available until 2032. It was also noted that issues with Pratt & Whitney GTF engines have eased, and more than 150 grounded aircraft are expected to return to service in 2026.
